Summary:

China's dairy industry saw rising imports (+11% in Q1 2025) and surging exports (+95.9%), with Yili growing but Mengniu facing declines. Premiumization, health trends, and stable raw material prices emerged, while supply chains adjusted and plant-based alternatives rose.

 
I. Import-Export and International Trade

1. Import Data

In Q1 2025, China’s dairy product imports reached 723,600 metric tons (+11% YoY), with a value of $3.167 billion (+23% YoY). Key categories saw surging imports: cream (+52.1% YoY), whey products (+38.1%), and infant formula (+14.6%), with March infant formula imports spiking 47.6% YoY. Import prices diverged: cream up 26.5%, proteins up 37.1%, but whey powder and packaged milk prices dipped slightly.

Supply Chain: New Zealand and Australia remained dominant sources, with New Zealand accounting for 66.6% of cheese imports and Australia 15.2%. U.S. California production fell 2.1% due to avian flu, but overall exports still grew.

2. Export Data

Dairy exports hit 28,300 metric tons in Q1 (+95.9% YoY), valued at $86 million (+52.4% YoY). Major exports included bulk powder (12,900 tons, +413.1% YoY) and infant formula (1,890 tons, +29.7%), targeting Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

II. Sales and Market Performance

Leading Enterprises’ Results

• Yili: Q1 2025 revenue: ¥33.018 billion (+1.35% YoY), net profit: ¥4.874 billion (-17.71% YoY), but milk powder and dairy products revenue rose 18.65% YoY to ¥8.813 billion.
• Mengniu: 2024 revenue: ¥88.675 billion (-10.09% YoY), net profit plummeted 97.83%.
• Regional Players: Brands like Yantang and Tianrun faced revenue declines in Q1 2025; some pursued growth via direct sales (e.g., New Dairy’s direct sales accounted for 58.4%).

Consumer Trends

• Premiumization: Yili’s high-end cold-chain milk revenue grew >30% YoY; Mengniu’s "Daily Fresh" maintained double-digit growth.
• Health Demand: Low-fat milk is expected to expand under the "Weight Management Year" policy, while yogurt grows driven by new products like milk skin yogurt.

III. Price and Cost Dynamics

Raw Material Prices

Domestic raw milk purchase prices stabilized after three years of decline, averaging ¥3.11/kg in major producing provinces in 2024 (-15.03% YoY), with a rebound expected in H2 2025. Internationally, New Zealand’s milk powder (converted to raw milk) priced above China’s for the first time in May 2024, easing import pressure.

Retail Prices

In May 2025, milk retail price: ¥12.17/L (-0.9% YoY); yogurt: ¥15.80/kg (-1.56% YoY). Imported dairy prices diverged: cream +26.5%, whey powder -1.7%.

Cost Pressures

Packaging accounts for 20-30% of dairy costs. In 2025, PET bottle chip prices fell 14.69% YoY, corrugated paper -6.43%, easing costs. However, EU packaging regulations (effective 2025) may raise compliance costs for exporters.

IV. Supply Chain and Capacity Layout

Domestic Supply Chain

• Milk Source Restructuring: Social farms exited due to losses, increasing dairy companies’ self-owned ranch share. China’s milk output fell 2.8% YoY to 40.79 million tons in 2024.
• Cold Chain Logistics: Hainan Free Trade Port’s "cross-customs zone conditional release" mode improved dairy export efficiency.

International Supply Chain

Global players like Fonterra and Nestlé accelerated sustainable supply chain initiatives (e.g., Fonterra’s cross-border logistics partnership with C&D Lifesupply, Nestlé’s net-zero carbon ranch pilots). However, U.S. CHS Inc.’s soybean export remained suspended, impacting some processors’ raw material supply.

V. Policies and Industry Trends

Domestic Policies

• Consumption Stimulus: The national "Weight Management Year" boosted low-fat milk demand; new standards for fermented and sterilized milk (effective September 2025) restrict reconstituted milk use.
• Sustainability: The Ministry of Agriculture requires a 10% annual increase in biopesticide use by 2025, pushing dairy packaging toward green materials.

International Standards

The International Seed Testing Association (ISTA) 2025 rules on seed treatment agent testing may raise dairy export compliance costs.

Industry Trends

• Cheese Market: Output expected to hit 500,000 tons in 2025, with a market size exceeding ¥30 billion; New Zealand and Australia are major sources.
• Plant-Based Alternatives: China’s plant-based dairy market may surpass ¥10 billion in 2025, with oat milk growing 200% YoY, posing competition to traditional dairy.

VI. Industry Conferences and Technical Exchanges

• China Dairy Technology Expo & Carnival (May 23-25, Nanjing International Expo Center): Hosted by China Dairy Industry Association, focusing on innovation and consumer upgrade, featuring new functional dairy products (e.g., low-GI high-calcium milk, medical foods) and transparent factory tours.
• 16th China Dairy Congress (July 13-15, Xiamen): One of Asia’s largest dairy exhibitions, covering tech displays, D20 forums, and trend seminars, expecting 500+ exhibitors and 60,000+ professionals.
• IDF World Dairy Summit (October 20-23, Santiago, Chile): Focuses on dairy’s role in sustainable agriculture and low-carbon production, attracting 1,000+ participants from 60+ countries, including technical exhibitions and southern Chile ranch tours.
• MENA 2025 (April 8-9, Dubai, UAE): Highlights MENA dairy markets, discussing high-value demand driven by population growth, innovative processing, and trade strategies, with 500+ industry representatives.
• IDDBA (June 1-3, New Orleans, USA): A global dairy, deli, and bakery event showcasing new products (e.g., Middle Eastern plant-based sauces), retail trends, and supply chain solutions, attracting 10,000+ professionals.

Data Sources: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, General Administration of Customs, China Dairy Industry Association, National Bureau of Statistics, CCM

More information can be found at CCM Dairy Products China Monthly Report.

About CCM:

CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China’s agriculture, chemicals, food & feed and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of content solutions, from price and trade analysis to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.

For more information about CCM, please visit www.cnchemicals.com or get in touch with us directly by emailing econtact@cnchemicals.com or calling +86-20-37616606.

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